Who's betting on “Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $177K traded all time
- Held now
- $32K by 246 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 68% 127 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 119 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $177K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
68% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
246 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 246 of them. The largest Yes holder is herewe, with $2.3K on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 68 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is nedsta, with $3.5K on it, $23K lifetime profit over 468 markets (88% won).
- Holders
- 127
- Money on it
- $6.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 119
- Money on it
- $25K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$6.6K on it
- 1herewe76% won of 68 · balanced$2.3K+$1.0K lifetime
- 20x0cf2310a5895488Db7D00aEf07a2Cca7bbe2bd92-176776131767675% won of 4$650−$606 lifetime
- 3nufonehudis6754% won of 236 · whale$355+$14K lifetime
- 4eNakeVets53% won of 1,031$285−$63K lifetime
- 5franklin1042% won of 19$271+$21 lifetime
No$25K on it
- 1nedsta88% won of 468 · whale$3.5K+$23K lifetime
- 2givemeusername58% won of 165$3.4K−$1.7K lifetime
- 3ChetterHummin98% won of 200 · whale$3.1K+$103 lifetime
- 4Aslan57% won of 175$2.8K−$3.4K lifetime
- 5moneymakingmachine58% won of 1,109$1.8K−$12K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?"?
246 wallets hold a position worth $32K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 246 of them. The largest Yes holder is herewe, with $2.3K on it, $1.0K lifetime profit over 68 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is nedsta, with $3.5K on it, $23K lifetime profit over 468 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 21¢ and No at 79¢, a 79% implied chance of No. $177K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
68% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.