Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $11K by 180 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 59% 96 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 84 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 20, 2026.
The smart money
59% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
180 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 180 of them.
- Holders
- 96
- Money on it
- $11K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
- Holders
- 84
- Money on it
- $42
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest temperature in Tokyo on October 20?
5 more- 26°C$19K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- 27°C$17K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- 25°C$16K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- 24°C$14K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- 23°C or below$11K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?"?
180 wallets hold a position worth $11K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 180 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on October 20?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 99¢ and No at 1¢, a 99% implied chance of Yes. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 20, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
59% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 20, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.