Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 30?”?
Smart money leans No: 66% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 36 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.2K by 179 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 30% 77 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 66% 102 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 100¢ and No at 0¢, a 100% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
The smart money
30% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
Who holds it
179 wallets hold a position worth $4.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 179 of them. The largest Yes holder is szmatt, with $992 on it, $9.5K lifetime loss over 752 markets (98% won). The largest No holder is qqqppp-l1, with $0 on it, $10K lifetime profit over 7,208 markets (38% won).
- Holders
- 77
- Money on it
- $4.2K
- Holders' win rate
- 84%
- Holders
- 102
- Money on it
- $2
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4.2K on it
- 1szmatt98% won of 752$992−$9.5K lifetime
- 2zwxokx286% won of 110$732−$13K lifetime
- 3averageuser73% won of 1,002 · whale$228+$327 lifetime
- 4hkjcsuck63% won of 229$204−$1.7K lifetime
- 5underwaterdruid98% won of 4,394$200−$614 lifetime
No$2 on it
- 1qqqppp-l138% won of 7,208 · noise$0+$10K lifetime
- 2hfv42% won of 44,721$0−$142K lifetime
- 3rocky4200753% won of 1,392 · whale$0+$13K lifetime
- 4aligagada45% won of 659 · balanced$0+$373 lifetime
- 5Helloitsmehere2637480% won of 304 · balanced$0+$507 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 30?
1 moreOther big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 30?"?
179 wallets hold a position worth $4.2K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 179 of them. The largest Yes holder is szmatt, with $992 on it, $9.5K lifetime loss over 752 markets (98% won). The largest No holder is qqqppp-l1, with $0 on it, $10K lifetime profit over 7,208 markets (38% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on September 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 100¢ and No at 0¢, a 100% implied chance of Yes. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 36 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.