Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 29?”?
Smart money leans No: 83% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 65 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $14K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.0K by 108 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 18% 79 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 83% 29 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
The smart money
18% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 65 points.
Who holds it
108 wallets hold a position worth $9.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 108 of them. The largest Yes holder is BINBIN888, with $4 on it, $31 lifetime loss over 73 markets (81% won). The largest No holder is Sylar012, with $7.0K on it, $5.1K lifetime profit over 2,873 markets (99% won).
- Holders
- 79
- Money on it
- $5
- Holders' win rate
- 72%
- Holders
- 29
- Money on it
- $9.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 95%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$5 on it
- 1BINBIN88881% won of 73$4−$31 lifetime
- 20x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-17788114477028% won of 34,037 · noise$0+$28K lifetime
- 3balthazar53% won of 52,842 · whale$0+$1.2M lifetime
- 4sleeper-service75% won of 2,250$0−$1.2K lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$0+$28K lifetime
No$9.0K on it
- 1Sylar01299% won of 2,873 · whale$7.0K+$5.1K lifetime
- 20xAE6d1b5181d17157c6111fC574a3ff6b1A45DED2-177055531742699% won of 942$1.0K−$31K lifetime
- 3hfv42% won of 44,828$305−$143K lifetime
- 40x3970ce79% won of 3,005 · whale$200+$4.6K lifetime
- 5quadratic1100% won of 843$100−$7 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 29?"?
108 wallets hold a position worth $9.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 108 of them. The largest Yes holder is BINBIN888, with $4 on it, $31 lifetime loss over 73 markets (81% won). The largest No holder is Sylar012, with $7.0K on it, $5.1K lifetime profit over 2,873 markets (99% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on October 29?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $14K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 29, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
18% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 65 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 29, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.