Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 74% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 50 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $17K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.5K by 467 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 74% 150 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 24% 317 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
The smart money
74% of the money on Yes and 24% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 50 points. A week ago, Yes by 50 points.
Who holds it
467 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 467 of them. The largest Yes holder is samhain4ik, with $1 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 224 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is averageuser, with $441 on it, $327 lifetime profit over 1,002 markets (73% won).
- Holders
- 150
- Money on it
- $4
- Holders' win rate
- 73%
- Holders
- 317
- Money on it
- $5.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 86%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$4 on it
- 1samhain4ik73% won of 224 · whale$1+$13K lifetime
- 2fildoro98% won of 1,021 · whale$0+$18K lifetime
- 30x9506…1c4f96% won of 875 · whale$0+$21K lifetime
- 4ZhouYi-talk60% won of 271$0−$361 lifetime
- 5HBX022% won of 2,384$0−$5.4K lifetime
No$5.5K on it
- 1averageuser73% won of 1,002 · whale$441+$327 lifetime
- 2tradetosurvive145% won of 25,344$359−$217K lifetime
- 3GUZMANYGOMEZ96% won of 783$258−$1.3K lifetime
- 4neo777791% won of 1,484 · whale$250+$18K lifetime
- 50x5eD13c197f82592e52e95B9d9630E900372aD0EC-177632646243576% won of 736 · balanced$200+$2.5K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 30?
2 moreOther big weather markets
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- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?"?
467 wallets hold a position worth $5.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 467 of them. The largest Yes holder is samhain4ik, with $1 on it, $13K lifetime profit over 224 markets (73% won). The largest No holder is averageuser, with $441 on it, $327 lifetime profit over 1,002 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $17K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on September 30, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
74% of the money on Yes and 24% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 50 points. A week ago, Yes by 50 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on September 30, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.