Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 1?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.6K by 232 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 71% 131 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 70% 100 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved Yes. $15K has been traded on it.
The smart money
71% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
232 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 231 of them.
- Holders
- 131
- Money on it
- $5.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 83%
- Holders
- 101
- Money on it
- $2
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest temperature in Guangzhou on October 1?
4 more- 35°C$23K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- 38°C or higher$15K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
- 37°C$13K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: No
- 34°C$10K vol. · ClosedResolved NoSmart money: Yes
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 1?"?
232 wallets hold a position worth $5.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 231 of them.
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on October 1?"?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved Yes. $15K has been traded on it.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
This market closed on October 1, 2026 and resolved Yes. $15K has been traded on it.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.