Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C or below on October 20?”?
Smart money leans No: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 46 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $10K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.7K by 31 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 52% 21 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 98% 9 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 20, 2026.
The smart money
52% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 46 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
Who holds it
31 wallets hold a position worth $8.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x15d368a75e5645c003a624f6f567a6a049ce7d1a-1792328635986, with $45 on it, $23K lifetime profit over 31 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is Sylar012, with $7.2K on it, $5.1K lifetime profit over 2,863 markets (99% won).
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $56
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 9
- Money on it
- $8.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 97%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$56 on it
- 10x15d368a75e5645c003a624f6f567a6a049ce7d1a-179232863598661% won of 31 · balanced$45+$23K lifetime
- 2yrnmv57% won of 4,778$5−$6.5K lifetime
- 3hello.6770% won of 4,879 · whale$2+$58K lifetime
- 40xeb1b…87c078% won of 1,852 · whale$2+$47K lifetime
- 5balthazar53% won of 52,697 · whale$0+$1.2M lifetime
No$8.6K on it
- 1Sylar01299% won of 2,863 · whale$7.2K+$5.1K lifetime
- 2ccccq98% won of 8,466 · whale$995+$2.7K lifetime
- 3APlayBoy99% won of 328 · grinder$125+$835 lifetime
- 4laoli66875% won of 511$100−$53K lifetime
- 50x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-17788117736588% won of 33,595 · noise$61+$27K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C or below on October 20?"?
31 wallets hold a position worth $8.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 30 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x15d368a75e5645c003a624f6f567a6a049ce7d1a-1792328635986, with $45 on it, $23K lifetime profit over 31 markets (61% won). The largest No holder is Sylar012, with $7.2K on it, $5.1K lifetime profit over 2,863 markets (99% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 16°C or below on October 20?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $10K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 20, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
52% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 46 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 20, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.