Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 8?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 69% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 19 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $12K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.6K by 199 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 69% 120 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 51% 79 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 8, 2026.
The smart money
69% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 19 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
Who holds it
199 wallets hold a position worth $3.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is donothackmeee, with $1 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 253 markets (81% won). The largest No holder is bdc12, with $303 on it, $9.4K lifetime loss over 520 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 120
- Money on it
- $3
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
- Holders
- 79
- Money on it
- $3.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3 on it
- 1donothackmeee81% won of 253 · whale$1+$16K lifetime
- 2weeeatheeer80% won of 250 · balanced$1+$5.0K lifetime
- 30xd93e…743449% won of 1,073$0−$1.4K lifetime
- 4TunSahur93% won of 2,184 · whale$0+$18K lifetime
- 5neutralwave2371% won of 30,925$0−$3.0M lifetime
No$3.5K on it
- 1bdc1292% won of 520$303−$9.4K lifetime
- 2cigarettes46% won of 49,301$270−$52K lifetime
- 3AndreaPirlo33% won of 429$266−$1.2K lifetime
- 40xb1625Df4b56d991c0fF67A3E3d27D817c7BF9DA7-176850792249699% won of 587 · whale$250+$463 lifetime
- 50x9506…1c4f96% won of 875 · whale$242+$21K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 8?
1 moreOther big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 8?"?
199 wallets hold a position worth $3.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 199 of them. The largest Yes holder is donothackmeee, with $1 on it, $16K lifetime profit over 253 markets (81% won). The largest No holder is bdc12, with $303 on it, $9.4K lifetime loss over 520 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on October 8?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 8, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
69% of the money on Yes and 51% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 19 points. A week ago, Yes by 19 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 8, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.