Who's betting on “Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 19?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 80% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 17 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $11K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.0K by 157 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 80% 109 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 63% 47 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 19, 2026.
The smart money
80% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
Who holds it
157 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 156 of them. The largest Yes holder is hello.67, with $2 on it, $58K lifetime profit over 4,866 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is 0x6D5424c79aB3a2BF2c7eC08b7C0Bd9A02ACFa7Fe-1777639752721, with $1.8K on it, $133 lifetime profit over 151 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 110
- Money on it
- $10
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $4.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 81%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$10 on it
- 1hello.6770% won of 4,866 · whale$2+$58K lifetime
- 20x15d368a75e5645c003a624f6f567a6a049ce7d1a-179232863598661% won of 31 · balanced$1+$23K lifetime
- 3Maddad76% won of 317 · balanced$1+$6.4K lifetime
- 4Roadto1Billion21% won of 127 · noise$1+$291 lifetime
- 5qwen300.fund33% won of 130,894 · noise$0+$593K lifetime
No$4.0K on it
- 10x6D5424c79aB3a2BF2c7eC08b7C0Bd9A02ACFa7Fe-177763975272186% won of 151 · balanced$1.8K+$133 lifetime
- 20xAE6d1b5181d17157c6111fC574a3ff6b1A45DED2-177055531742699% won of 933$533−$31K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,344$254−$217K lifetime
- 4lcdlcdlcd94% won of 209 · balanced$250+$1.9K lifetime
- 50x3970ce79% won of 2,980 · whale$250+$4.6K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Highest temperature in Amsterdam on October 19?
1 moreOther big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$801K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 19?"?
157 wallets hold a position worth $4.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 156 of them. The largest Yes holder is hello.67, with $2 on it, $58K lifetime profit over 4,866 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is 0x6D5424c79aB3a2BF2c7eC08b7C0Bd9A02ACFa7Fe-1777639752721, with $1.8K on it, $133 lifetime profit over 151 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on October 19?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $11K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on October 19, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
80% of the money on Yes and 63% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on October 19, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.