Who's betting on “Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $15K traded all time
- Held now
- $2.1K by 60 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 73% 24 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 77% 36 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
The smart money
73% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points.
Who holds it
60 wallets hold a position worth $2.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is supersmard, with $200 on it, $80K lifetime profit over 116 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $397 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
- Holders
- 24
- Money on it
- $509
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$509 on it
- 1supersmard60% won of 116 · whale$200+$80K lifetime
- 2xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$120+$255K lifetime
- 3tradetosurvive145% won of 25,344$39−$217K lifetime
- 4Careerchanger100% won of 4$34+$0 lifetime
- 5Rayse20% won of 242$25−$4.5K lifetime
No$1.6K on it
- 1flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$397+$2.3K lifetime
- 2Antony8267% won of 712 · balanced$378+$3.7K lifetime
- 3Mandalorec63% won of 286 · balanced$217+$3.2K lifetime
- 4estoicc58% won of 340 · balanced$81+$8.7K lifetime
- 5K80PRO56% won of 904$80−$466 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $2.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is supersmard, with $200 on it, $80K lifetime profit over 116 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is flexibleagedbeef, with $397 on it, $2.3K lifetime profit over 11 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 25¢ and No at 76¢, a 76% implied chance of No. $15K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 3, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 77% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 9 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 3, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.