Who's betting on “France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 81% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 7 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $31K traded all time
- Held now
- $8.7K by 123 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 81% 65 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 73% 55 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
The smart money
81% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
Who holds it
123 wallets hold a position worth $8.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 120 of them. The largest Yes holder is DontTrustMe, with $175 on it, $9.9K lifetime profit over 125 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is vinii, with $1.6K on it, $170K lifetime profit over 1,915 markets (64% won).
- Holders
- 67
- Money on it
- $608
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $8.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$608 on it
- 1DontTrustMe87% won of 125 · balanced$175+$9.9K lifetime
- 20xF5e47CaF8B2E23aa9230D70758bDb2c9747F471a-174601274498397% won of 242 · balanced$148+$11K lifetime
- 3lissartter56% won of 2,997$40−$287K lifetime
- 4revol65% won of 228 · whale$35+$5.0K lifetime
- 5xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$25+$255K lifetime
No$8.1K on it
- 1vinii64% won of 1,915 · whale$1.6K+$170K lifetime
- 2GOLADS9677% won of 60$1.0K−$2.2K lifetime
- 3theta-thunberg56% won of 1,095 · whale$979+$66K lifetime
- 4DegenerateJanet83% won of 672 · whale$954+$27K lifetime
- 5Jest5573% won of 1,084 · whale$401+$145K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?"?
123 wallets hold a position worth $8.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 120 of them. The largest Yes holder is DontTrustMe, with $175 on it, $9.9K lifetime profit over 125 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is vinii, with $1.6K on it, $170K lifetime profit over 1,915 markets (64% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 7¢ and No at 93¢, a 93% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
81% of the money on Yes and 73% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 7 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 27 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.