Who's betting on “Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 61% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 22 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $34K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.5K by 143 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 38% 31 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 61% 112 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $34K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
38% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
Who holds it
143 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 143 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x10f46954C11f9B6B40cB0a390eFAB28032D27728-1774024809937, with $57 on it, $8.2K lifetime loss over 4 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is Car, with $1.6K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won).
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $195
- Holders' win rate
- 52%
- Holders
- 112
- Money on it
- $4.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 61%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$195 on it
- 10x10f46954C11f9B6B40cB0a390eFAB28032D27728-1774024809937100% won of 4$57−$8.2K lifetime
- 2Perypery30% won of 473 · noise$18+$44K lifetime
- 30x93581Ad8500472E9D4fD6F05f81e916AbD476d5b-177639227666180% won of 5$17−$95 lifetime
- 4Trading4Fridge57% won of 382 · whale$14+$64K lifetime
- 5jinsqu53% won of 15$11+$477 lifetime
No$4.3K on it
- 1Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$1.6K+$1.5M lifetime
- 2aleksandrshtefanov46% won of 35$590−$1.5K lifetime
- 30x9e3ed7b661a903fc97afcf49e0f014ebe869f882-178340600939647% won of 78,573$275−$4.0M lifetime
- 4MemeDream77% won of 231 · whale$191+$5.6K lifetime
- 5qwer141390% won of 40$152−$3.7K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$76M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
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- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$45M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?"?
143 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 143 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x10f46954C11f9B6B40cB0a390eFAB28032D27728-1774024809937, with $57 on it, $8.2K lifetime loss over 4 markets (100% won). The largest No holder is Car, with $1.6K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $34K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
38% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 24 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.