Who's betting on “European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 63 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $95K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.4K by 146 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 24% 26 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 120 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
24% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 63 points. A week ago, No by 49 points.
Who holds it
146 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 146 of them. The largest Yes holder is bnetopt, with $100 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 235 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is Pantheon1, with $625 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 231 markets (73% won).
- Holders
- 26
- Money on it
- $353
- Holders' win rate
- 49%
- Holders
- 120
- Money on it
- $4.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 75%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$353 on it
- 1bnetopt39% won of 235$100−$41K lifetime
- 2v1notlost60% won of 202$90−$3.6K lifetime
- 3cr745% won of 125 · noise$43+$2.0K lifetime
- 4stavr61% won of 125$23−$779 lifetime
- 5rocky4200654% won of 1,383$22−$12K lifetime
No$4.1K on it
- 1Pantheon173% won of 231 · balanced$625+$4.5K lifetime
- 2bifurcatio77% won of 117 · balanced$562+$3.5K lifetime
- 3Tenebrus766% won of 1,613 · whale$550+$154K lifetime
- 4shred777788% won of 216 · balanced$547+$9.7K lifetime
- 5Basque76% won of 41 · balanced$368+$698 lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
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Questions
Who is betting on "European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?"?
146 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 146 of them. The largest Yes holder is bnetopt, with $100 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 235 markets (39% won). The largest No holder is Pantheon1, with $625 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 231 markets (73% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 8¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $95K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
24% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 63 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 63 points. A week ago, No by 49 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.