Who's betting on “ECB rate cut in 2026?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 73% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 15 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $37K traded all time
- Held now
- $9.8K by 93 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 73% 46 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 58% 47 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $37K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
73% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
Who holds it
93 wallets hold a position worth $9.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 93 of them. The largest Yes holder is Wojtek, with $247 on it, $55K lifetime profit over 229 markets (15% won). The largest No holder is SaracensCapital2, with $1.9K on it, $31K lifetime loss over 292 markets (67% won).
- Holders
- 46
- Money on it
- $443
- Holders' win rate
- 34%
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $9.4K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$443 on it
- 1Wojtek15% won of 229 · noise$247+$55K lifetime
- 20x5B219BC0AA5B935bA38ED72707fe34DEE341B928-1758356071870100% won of 1$45−$674 lifetime
- 3-67-60% won of 202$36−$2.4K lifetime
- 4TimeTraveler88% won of 1,375 · whale$22+$142K lifetime
- 5NFspec56% won of 18$13−$106 lifetime
No$9.4K on it
- 1SaracensCapital267% won of 292$1.9K−$31K lifetime
- 2Dynvest59% won of 130$1.2K−$3.4K lifetime
- 3QMG-CORE73% won of 1,224 · whale$1.0K+$57K lifetime
- 40xB16B00B582% won of 342 · whale$976+$51K lifetime
- 5perfectnostalgia52% won of 932 · whale$865+$153K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big economy markets
- US recession by end of 2026?$2.4M vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 20%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.8M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money split
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 78%No 23%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?$973K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?$324K vol.Yes 31%No 70%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "ECB rate cut in 2026?"?
93 wallets hold a position worth $9.8K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 93 of them. The largest Yes holder is Wojtek, with $247 on it, $55K lifetime profit over 229 markets (15% won). The largest No holder is SaracensCapital2, with $1.9K on it, $31K lifetime loss over 292 markets (67% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "ECB rate cut in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $37K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
73% of the money on Yes and 58% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 11 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.