Who's betting on “1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?”?
Smart money leans No: 87% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 74 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $118K traded all time
- Held now
- $13K by 1,087 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 13% 87 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 87% 1,000 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $118K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 1, 2027.
The smart money
13% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 74 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 70 points. A week ago, No by 76 points.
Who holds it
1,087 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,087 of them. The largest Yes holder is xor7, with $515 on it, $1.8K lifetime loss over 15 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04, with $6.2K on it, $146K lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (92% won).
- Holders
- 87
- Money on it
- $930
- Holders' win rate
- 37%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' win rate
- 89%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$930 on it
- 1xor727% won of 15$515−$1.8K lifetime
- 2rocky4202353% won of 1,245$52−$19K lifetime
- 3WanderingImpulse4% won of 202$40−$1.2K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$31+$255K lifetime
- 5Jane9985% won of 40$30−$1 lifetime
No$12K on it
- 195074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b0492% won of 1,009 · whale$6.2K+$146K lifetime
- 2Elias.Thornwell69% won of 3,134 · whale$486+$570 lifetime
- 3BetterFish61% won of 740 · whale$312+$35K lifetime
- 40x94BF886A4a73D74BCF45f51F975b4F2E91cc3785-176116363269380% won of 35 · balanced$262+$211 lifetime
- 50x8931…a90c95% won of 609 · whale$252+$29K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
Other big weather markets
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?$19M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$6.5M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$834K vol.Yes 2%No 99%Smart money: No
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?$802K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$360K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: No
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?$340K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?$335K vol.Yes 4%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will there be 5 or more confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?$276K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?"?
1,087 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,087 of them. The largest Yes holder is xor7, with $515 on it, $1.8K lifetime loss over 15 markets (27% won). The largest No holder is 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04, with $6.2K on it, $146K lifetime profit over 1,009 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $118K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
13% of the money on Yes and 87% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 74 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 70 points. A week ago, No by 76 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.