Who's betting on “Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?”?
Politics · $12K volume · Ends July 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
13% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 47 points. A week ago, No by 48 points.
50 wallets hold a position worth $7.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is Zumala, with $505 on it, $918 lifetime loss over 66 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is 0x9152E4C81C58179949DE32d375efa2cB3a4369a5-1768161107298, with $1.2K on it, $2.1K lifetime profit over 13 markets (92% won).
- Smart money share
- 13%
- Holders
- 19
- Money on it
- $644
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 60%
- Holders
- 31
- Money on it
- $6.9K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zumala | $505 | -$918 | 62% of 66 |
| rontro28noise | $29 | +$6.5K | 37% of 230 |
| Lbr9balanced | $26 | +$390 | 74% of 102 |
| 0xb0fFD402eFA450104b4574d4bbdCB490Ccb7865C-1739228095976 | $17 | -$2.9K | 74% of 1,040 |
| MaxEntnoise | $15 | +$3.5K | 41% of 351 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9152E4C81C58179949DE32d375efa2cB3a4369a5-1768161107298 | $1.2K | +$2.1K | 92% of 13 |
| pravii-bereg | $1.0K | +$7 | 67% of 3 |
| Mwhale | $876 | -$676 | 55% of 532 |
| Ym777Ym | $686 | -$2.8K | 57% of 21 |
| 0x6c10…df5c | $458 | -$62K | 66% of 1,056 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?"?
50 wallets hold a position worth $7.6K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 50 of them. The largest Yes holder is Zumala, with $505 on it, $918 lifetime loss over 66 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is 0x9152E4C81C58179949DE32d375efa2cB3a4369a5-1768161107298, with $1.2K on it, $2.1K lifetime profit over 13 markets (92% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 92¢, a 92% implied chance of No. $12K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
13% of the money on Yes and 60% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 47 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 47 points. A week ago, No by 48 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.