Who's betting on “Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?”?
Smart money leans No: 88% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 36 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $31K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.3K by 78 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 51% 51 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 88% 27 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
The smart money
51% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
Who holds it
78 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is Averel, with $403 on it, $234 lifetime loss over 90 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is aviato, with $1.9K on it, $201K lifetime profit over 1,340 markets (80% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $20 on No.
- Holders
- 51
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 51%
- Holders
- 27
- Money on it
- $2.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 74%
- Snipers
- 1 · $20
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1Averel57% won of 90$403−$234 lifetime
- 2pleasefademe38% won of 139 · noise$216+$469 lifetime
- 3LamineCruise56% won of 16$215+$3.3K lifetime
- 40x0742…1b4837% won of 19$123−$11K lifetime
- 5MovieKing12% won of 25$114−$602 lifetime
No$2.7K on it
- 1aviato80% won of 1,340 · whale$1.9K+$201K lifetime
- 2D8D5289c35124b5353f5A10A28B8cC29aEC3893558% won of 935 · whale$259+$85K lifetime
- 30x49F20662% won of 862$141−$41K lifetime
- 4bananabreakfast48% won of 2,392 · balanced$98+$5.1K lifetime
- 5cigarettes46% won of 49,298$69−$52K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Oscars 2027: Best Actor Winner
9 more- Matt Damon$47K vol.Yes 17%No 83%Smart money: No
- Andrew Scott$26K vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: Yes
- John Malkovich$24K vol.Yes 43%No 57%Smart money: Yes
- Brad Pitt$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Timothée Chalamet$13K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: Yes
- Robert Pattinson$13K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Jeremy Strong$11K vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- John Turturro$10K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Ryan Gosling$10K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
78 wallets hold a position worth $4.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 78 of them. The largest Yes holder is Averel, with $403 on it, $234 lifetime loss over 90 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is aviato, with $1.9K on it, $201K lifetime profit over 1,340 markets (80% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Tom Cruise win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $31K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on July 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
51% of the money on Yes and 88% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 36 points. A week ago, No by 33 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on July 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.