Who's betting on “Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?”?
Pop culture · $1.4M volume · Ends January 8, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 8, 2027.
83% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
238 wallets hold a position worth $568 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 238 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $37 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is lansanw, with $130 on it, $157 lifetime loss over 35 markets (46% won).
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 151
- Money on it
- $115
- Holders' winrate
- 46%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 38%
- Holders
- 87
- Money on it
- $452
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| JustCrazywhale | $37 | +$32K | 47% of 264 |
| betterfasterstrongernoise | $11 | +$148K | 36% of 251 |
| LeTmeannoise | $9 | +$968 | 46% of 202 |
| alwayslatetothepartynoise | $6 | +$224K | 22% of 255 |
| pregamee | $5 | -$2.1K | 30% of 145 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| lansanw | $130 | -$157 | 46% of 35 |
| DomDraco | $49 | -$13 | 64% of 42 |
| Harms | $31 | -$10 | 50% of 28 |
| Eighty.jungle | $29 | +$1 | 68% of 47 |
| Efir-240noise | $20 | +$22 | 58% of 26 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Highest grossing movie in 2026?
- Scream 7$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Wuthering Heights$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Wicked: For Good$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Michael$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Jumanji 3$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Avengers: Doomsday$1.2M vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- The Odyssey$956K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu$821K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Dune: Messiah$732K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day$719K vol.Yes 93%No 7%Smart money: No
- The Super Mario Galaxy Movie$628K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Toy Story 5$619K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?$1.1M vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: Yes
- New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? $1.1M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?$1.1M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will 2026 be the fifth-hottest year on record?$908K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?$734K vol.Yes 87%No 14%Smart money: Yes
- No one announced as next James Bond?$610K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?
238 wallets hold a position worth $568 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 238 of them. The largest Yes holder is JustCrazy, with $37 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 264 markets (47% won). The largest No holder is lansanw, with $130 on it, $157 lifetime loss over 35 markets (46% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 8, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
83% of the money on Yes and 38% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 45 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 8, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.