Who's betting on “Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?”?
Pop culture · $735K volume · Ends March 2, 2027 · Updated October 25, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 85¢ and No at 15¢, an 85% implied chance of Yes. $735K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 2, 2027.
93% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 46 points. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
643 wallets hold a position worth $220K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 642 of them. The largest Yes holder is russell110320, with $70K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 226 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Orion96, with $2.1K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 674 markets (69% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.6K on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 93%
- Holders
- 435
- Money on it
- $208K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 1 · $1.6K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 48% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 208
- Money on it
- $12K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| russell110320whale | $70K | +$68K | 69% of 226 |
| flawfencewhale | $36K | +$477K | 75% of 478 |
| SS123 | $21K | +$2.9K | 100% of 2 |
| balerinacapuchinawhale | $18K | +$32K | 77% of 248 |
| gopfan2whale | $13K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 5$909K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 6 or lower$605K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 4$555K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 3$536K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 2$476K vol.Yes 13%No 88%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? →
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?"?
643 wallets hold a position worth $220K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 642 of them. The largest Yes holder is russell110320, with $70K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 226 markets (69% won). The largest No holder is Orion96, with $2.1K on it, $37K lifetime profit over 674 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 85¢ and No at 15¢, an 85% implied chance of Yes. $735K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 2, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
93% of the money on Yes and 48% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 45 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 46 points. A week ago, Yes by 41 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 2, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.