Who's betting on “Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?”?
Pop culture · $475K volume · Ends March 2, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $475K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 2, 2027.
88% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
430 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 430 of them. The largest Yes holder is gopfan2, with $12K on it, $1.7M lifetime profit over 1,012 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is russell110320, with $5.8K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 226 markets (69% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $135 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 88%
- Holders
- 300
- Money on it
- $24K
- Holders' winrate
- 72%
- Snipers
- 1 · $135
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 130
- Money on it
- $14K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| gopfan2whale | $12K | +$1.7M | 79% of 1,012 |
| Orion96whale | $1.8K | +$37K | 69% of 674 |
| troimwhale | $1.2K | +$81K | 66% of 791 |
| SS123 | $991 | +$2.9K | 100% of 2 |
| Miojinhowhale | $675 | +$35K | 68% of 170 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| russell110320whale | $5.8K | +$68K | 69% of 226 |
| SweetChariotwhale | $2.2K | +$24K | 88% of 216 |
| kgg001 | $1.3K | -$6.1K | 90% of 41 |
| vainglorious87 | $820 | -$35K | 82% of 154 |
| mijnabp | $636 | -$555 | 43% of 103 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 5$908K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 1$734K vol.Yes 83%No 17%Smart money: Yes
- 6 or lower$605K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 4$555K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 3$535K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Who's betting on Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? →
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?"?
430 wallets hold a position worth $38K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 430 of them. The largest Yes holder is gopfan2, with $12K on it, $1.7M lifetime profit over 1,012 markets (79% won). The largest No holder is russell110320, with $5.8K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 226 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $475K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 2, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
88% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 17 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 16 points. A week ago, Yes by 17 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 2, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.