Who's betting on “Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?”?
Pop culture · $555K volume · Ends March 2, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $555K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 2, 2027.
58% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
300 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 300 of them. The largest Yes holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $34 on it, $306K lifetime profit over 3,734 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $637 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 58%
- Holders
- 227
- Money on it
- $165
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 66%
- Holders
- 73
- Money on it
- $1.8K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ArmageddonRewardsBillywhale | $34 | +$306K | 44% of 3,734 |
| Eiawhale | $14 | +$23K | 59% of 1,198 |
| Degencrew | $10 | -$5.3K | 66% of 207 |
| PCMTestwhale | $9 | +$13K | 77% of 428 |
| yurlppygrinder | $8 | +$1.7K | 84% of 1,547 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $637 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| lissartter | $380 | -$270K | 56% of 2,742 |
| tttt123whale | $176 | +$14K | 74% of 212 |
| wdrat0571 | $100 | +$4 | 94% of 16 |
| TradeDeficitArchitectwhale | $100 | +$189K | 61% of 1,006 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 5$908K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 1$734K vol.Yes 83%No 17%Smart money: Yes
- 6 or lower$605K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 3$535K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- 2$475K vol.Yes 14%No 87%Smart money: Yes
Who's betting on Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record? →
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?"?
300 wallets hold a position worth $2.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 300 of them. The largest Yes holder is ArmageddonRewardsBilly, with $34 on it, $306K lifetime profit over 3,734 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $637 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $555K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 2, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
58% of the money on Yes and 66% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 8 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 8 points. A week ago, No by 8 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 2, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.