Who's betting on “Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $32K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.3K by 107 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 70% 53 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 74% 53 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 53¢ and No at 47¢, a 53% implied chance of Yes. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 15, 2027.
The smart money
70% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
107 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is LamineCruise, with $949 on it, $3.3K lifetime profit over 16 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is pengu1n, with $588 on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 2,450 markets (26% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $18 on Yes.
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 1 · $18
- Holders
- 53
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 54%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.3K on it
- 1LamineCruise56% won of 16$949+$3.3K lifetime
- 2pleasefademe38% won of 139 · noise$371+$469 lifetime
- 3moneymakingmachine58% won of 1,109$208−$12K lifetime
- 4negativePNL32% won of 201 · noise$203+$3.8K lifetime
- 5Artvanderlee60% won of 204$201−$2.1K lifetime
No$2.9K on it
- 1pengu1n26% won of 2,450 · noise$588+$1.8K lifetime
- 2buoys46% won of 1,244 · whale$389+$83K lifetime
- 3Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$332−$377K lifetime
- 4SweetChariot89% won of 218 · whale$305+$24K lifetime
- 5SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$183+$203K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations
6 more- Timothée Chalamet$20K vol.Yes 15%No 85%Smart money: No
- Robert Pattinson$15K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: No
- Jaafar Jackson$15K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- Pedro Pascal$13K vol.Yes 15%No 85%Smart money split
- Matt Damon$12K vol.Yes 92%No 8%Smart money: No
- Ryan Gosling$10K vol.Yes 48%No 53%Smart money: No
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
107 wallets hold a position worth $6.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 106 of them. The largest Yes holder is LamineCruise, with $949 on it, $3.3K lifetime profit over 16 markets (56% won). The largest No holder is pengu1n, with $588 on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 2,450 markets (26% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 53¢ and No at 47¢, a 53% implied chance of Yes. $32K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 15, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
70% of the money on Yes and 74% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 15, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.