Who's betting on “Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?”?
Smart money leans No: 98% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 35 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $20K traded all time
- Held now
- $6.7K by 53 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 63% 36 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 98% 17 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 21, 2027.
The smart money
63% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
Who holds it
53 wallets hold a position worth $6.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 53 of them. The largest Yes holder is negativePNL, with $251 on it, $3.8K lifetime profit over 201 markets (32% won). The largest No holder is Stonktrader, with $4.1K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 247 markets (94% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $11 on No.
- Holders
- 36
- Money on it
- $1.0K
- Holders' win rate
- 44%
- Holders
- 17
- Money on it
- $5.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 79%
- Snipers
- 1 · $11
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.0K on it
- 1negativePNL32% won of 201 · noise$251+$3.8K lifetime
- 2Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$122−$377K lifetime
- 3pleasefademe38% won of 139 · noise$75+$469 lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$71+$255K lifetime
- 5Hyperlong51% won of 1,296$63−$59K lifetime
No$5.7K on it
- 1Stonktrader94% won of 247 · whale$4.1K+$98K lifetime
- 220YrsOfBoredom32% won of 213 · noise$887+$15K lifetime
- 3SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$311+$203K lifetime
- 4pengu1n26% won of 2,450 · noise$182+$1.8K lifetime
- 5GUINESS12370% won of 547$60−$59K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Oscars 2027: Best Actor Nominations
6 more- Tom Cruise$32K vol.Yes 53%No 47%Smart money split
- Robert Pattinson$15K vol.Yes 27%No 74%Smart money: No
- Jaafar Jackson$15K vol.Yes 12%No 88%Smart money: No
- Pedro Pascal$13K vol.Yes 15%No 85%Smart money split
- Matt Damon$12K vol.Yes 92%No 8%Smart money: No
- Ryan Gosling$10K vol.Yes 48%No 53%Smart money: No
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
53 wallets hold a position worth $6.7K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 53 of them. The largest Yes holder is negativePNL, with $251 on it, $3.8K lifetime profit over 201 markets (32% won). The largest No holder is Stonktrader, with $4.1K on it, $98K lifetime profit over 247 markets (94% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 15¢ and No at 85¢, an 85% implied chance of No. $20K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 21, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 34 points. A week ago, No by 34 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 21, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.