Who's betting on “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?”?
Politics · $28M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $28M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
34% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $4.7M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,999 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172, with $30K on it, $185K lifetime loss over 33 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952, with $653K on it, $164K lifetime loss over 888 markets (83% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $133 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $12K on No.
- Smart money share
- 34%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $255K
- Holders' winrate
- 47%
- Snipers
- 1 · $133
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $4.4M
- Holders' winrate
- 76%
- Snipers
- 2 · $12K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172 | $30K | -$185K | 33% of 33 |
| LlamaLoco0000noise | $26K | +$348K | 45% of 297 |
| Djfere | $25K | -$21K | 75% of 4 |
| NECRO-VOID | $25K | -$28K | 33% of 6 |
| Arbguywhale | $8.5K | +$481K | 45% of 1,009 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952 | $653K | -$164K | 83% of 888 |
| denizzwhale | $465K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| Erasmus.whale | $269K | +$204K | 70% of 828 |
| aff3whale | $214K | +$264K | 79% of 276 |
| TeamA | $179K | +$49K | 100% of 1 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $4.7M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,999 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x485a2E9AD89D9109BB4d37b925bA60f6350421cB-1768423550172, with $30K on it, $185K lifetime loss over 33 markets (33% won). The largest No holder is 0x8B4bcA1D794779E66e023D44391B2A86C5ab541B-1769764313952, with $653K on it, $164K lifetime loss over 888 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $28M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
34% of the money on Yes and 71% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 36 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 37 points. A week ago, No by 39 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.