Who's betting on “Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?”?
Politics · $12M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 92¢ and No at 9¢, a 92% implied chance of Yes. $12M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
79% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 37 points.
1,800 wallets hold a position worth $6.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,782 of them. The largest Yes holder is burrito338, with $735K on it, $177K lifetime profit over 104 markets (92% won). The largest No holder is BreakTheBank, with $118K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won).
7 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $30K on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $34 on No; the insider radar has flagged 1 wallet betting $2.9K on No.
- Smart money share
- 79% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $5.9M
- Holders' winrate
- 78%
- Snipers
- 7 · $30K
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 46%
- Holders
- 800
- Money on it
- $434K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 1 · $34
- Insider flags
- 1 · $2.9K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| burrito338whale | $735K | +$177K | 92% of 104 |
| ndb1whale | $376K | +$2.2M | 61% of 1,337 |
| scottiliciouswhale | $274K | +$1.5M | 83% of 1,009 |
| 0xB9d89bef8c935082F6a86355bD9667402D92275A-1751857844680 | $188K | +$48K | 95% of 19 |
| BuddhaYTorrancewhale | $148K | +$61K | 98% of 87 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BreakTheBankwhale | $118K | +$10M | 87% of 609 |
| QQQ777 | $101K | -$1.3M | 62% of 42 |
| bullishkirby | $38K | -$105K | 78% of 204 |
| mooseborzoi | $12K | -$11M | 41% of 8,542 |
| ChiCozCapitalnoise | $11K | +$12K | 22% of 23 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?
1,800 wallets hold a position worth $6.3M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,782 of them. The largest Yes holder is burrito338, with $735K on it, $177K lifetime profit over 104 markets (92% won). The largest No holder is BreakTheBank, with $118K on it, $10M lifetime profit over 609 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 92¢ and No at 9¢, a 92% implied chance of Yes. $12M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 46% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 33 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 34 points. A week ago, Yes by 37 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
1 wallet on No ($2.9K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.