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Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?”?

Finance$18K traded37 holdersEnds January 1, 2027Updated October 29, 2026
66%Yes🧠 smart money
35%No

Smart money leans Yes: 90% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 62 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$18K
traded all time
Held now
$1.1K
by 37 wallets
Smart share · Yes
90%
21 scored holders
Smart share · No
27%
16 scored holders
📈 Open the live signal🔔 Alert me when smart money moves

What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

The smart money

90% of the money on Yes and 27% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 62 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 59 points.

Who holds it

37 wallets hold a position worth $1.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is Started-with-20-USD, with $277 on it, $54K lifetime profit over 571 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is GotGreenWood, with $140 on it, $5.7K lifetime loss over 1,052 markets (62% won).

Yes66%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share90% ▲ 1 pts in 24 h
a day ago 88%now 90%
Holders
21
Money on it
$741
Holders' win rate
59%
No35%
Smart money share27% ▼ 2 pts in 24 h
a day ago 29%now 27%
Holders
16
Money on it
$390
Holders' win rate
56%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$741 on it

  1. 1Started-with-20-USD55% won of 571 · whale$277+$54K lifetime
  2. 2Newshound73% won of 1,051 · whale$144+$73K lifetime
  3. 3alamedamemola44% won of 165 · noise$82+$235 lifetime
  4. 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,511 · noise$63+$254K lifetime
  5. 50xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$45+$61K lifetime

No$390 on it

  1. 1GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$140−$5.7K lifetime
  2. 2lissartter56% won of 2,997$46−$287K lifetime
  3. 3jmonroig76% won of 111 · balanced$44+$35 lifetime
  4. 4LornaPredicts28% won of 15,970 · noise$39+$28K lifetime
  5. 5Fihdrzgdd40% won of 3,576$27−$20K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?"?

37 wallets hold a position worth $1.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 37 of them. The largest Yes holder is Started-with-20-USD, with $277 on it, $54K lifetime profit over 571 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is GotGreenWood, with $140 on it, $5.7K lifetime loss over 1,052 markets (62% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 66¢ and No at 35¢, a 66% implied chance of Yes. $18K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

90% of the money on Yes and 27% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 62 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 59 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.