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Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?”?

Finance$74K traded32 holdersEnds January 1, 2027Updated October 29, 2026
50%Yes
50%No🧠 smart money

Smart money leans No: 85% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 44 points ahead of the other side.

Volume
$74K
traded all time
Held now
$868
by 32 wallets
Smart share · Yes
42%
20 scored holders
Smart share · No
85%
12 scored holders
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What the money says

The odds

Polymarket prices Yes at 50¢ and No at 50¢, a 50% implied chance of Yes. $74K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

The smart money

42% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points.

Who holds it

32 wallets hold a position worth $868 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 32 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $109 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,246 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0xff7c…b233, with $190 on it, $61K lifetime profit over 500 markets (67% won).

Yes50%
Smart money share42%
Holders
20
Money on it
$438
Holders' win rate
49%
No50%
🧠 Smart money leans here
Smart money share85%
Holders
12
Money on it
$430
Holders' win rate
68%

The biggest holders on each side

with their lifetime records

Yes$438 on it

  1. 1xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,246 · noise$109+$255K lifetime
  2. 2GotGreenWood62% won of 1,052$101−$5.7K lifetime
  3. 3lissartter56% won of 2,997$71−$287K lifetime
  4. 4alamedamemola42% won of 155 · noise$51+$163 lifetime
  5. 5hfv42% won of 44,695$51−$142K lifetime

No$430 on it

  1. 10xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$190+$61K lifetime
  2. 20xJasonSan78% won of 662 · whale$156+$14K lifetime
  3. 3rocky4201850% won of 755$36−$26K lifetime
  4. 4financegaaaydog65% won of 620$12−$1.4K lifetime
  5. 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,856 · noise$10+$27K lifetime
Every holder on both sides, scored, on the live signal →
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See what the smart money does next, as it happens.

The live signalEvery holder scored, the smart-money chart since it was first tracked, and the order book.Alerts on this marketStar it and hear when it moves, or when a whale or a proven wallet goes in.Watch trades on SonarEvery Polymarket trade of $50+, live, as an ocean.AI Edge ScannerWhere Polkyo's model and the price disagree, after costs.

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Questions

Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?"?

32 wallets hold a position worth $868 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 32 of them. The largest Yes holder is xtxpleasecallme, with $109 on it, $255K lifetime profit over 123,246 markets (40% won). The largest No holder is 0xff7c…b233, with $190 on it, $61K lifetime profit over 500 markets (67% won).

What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?"?

Polymarket prices Yes at 50¢ and No at 50¢, a 50% implied chance of Yes. $74K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.

Which side is the smart money on?

42% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 44 points.

When does this market end?

It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.

Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.