Who's betting on “Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 33% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 9 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $16K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.0K by 36 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 33% 18 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 25% 18 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
33% of the money on Yes and 25% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
Who holds it
36 wallets hold a position worth $3.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is nj23adsknml3, with $82 on it, $5.0K lifetime loss over 204 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Tomekyy, with $1.7K on it, $9.0K lifetime loss over 54 markets (76% won).
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $148
- Holders' win rate
- 59%
- Holders
- 18
- Money on it
- $2.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$148 on it
- 1nj23adsknml350% won of 204$82−$5.0K lifetime
- 2fledger88% won of 51 · balanced$41+$455 lifetime
- 3GuyFromTinder37% won of 22,344$10−$89K lifetime
- 40x0174…95b060% won of 25$4+$50 lifetime
- 5Dr.PNL30% won of 15,294$3−$485K lifetime
No$2.9K on it
- 1Tomekyy76% won of 54$1.7K−$9.0K lifetime
- 2SuperTests52% won of 1,676 · balanced$285+$15K lifetime
- 3chessplayer70% won of 1,381$188−$17K lifetime
- 4cigarettes46% won of 49,306$169−$51K lifetime
- 50xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-177694439549523% won of 12,163 · noise$166+$335K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
11 more- Below 4.65%$74K vol.Yes 56%No 44%Smart money: No
- Below 4.35%$48K vol.Yes 16%No 85%Smart money: No
- Below 4.45%$43K vol.Yes 28%No 72%Smart money: No
- Below 4.20%$36K vol.Yes 7%No 93%Smart money: No
- Below 4.50%$34K vol.Yes 32%No 69%Smart money: No
- Below 4.40%$30K vol.Yes 24%No 77%Smart money: No
- Below 4.25%$26K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- Below 4.30%$24K vol.Yes 11%No 89%Smart money: No
- Below 4.70%$18K vol.Yes 66%No 35%Smart money: Yes
- Below 4.55%$12K vol.Yes 42%No 59%Smart money: No
- Below 4.00%$10K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?"?
36 wallets hold a position worth $3.0K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 36 of them. The largest Yes holder is nj23adsknml3, with $82 on it, $5.0K lifetime loss over 204 markets (50% won). The largest No holder is Tomekyy, with $1.7K on it, $9.0K lifetime loss over 54 markets (76% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.10% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 5¢ and No at 95¢, a 95% implied chance of No. $16K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
33% of the money on Yes and 25% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, No by 31 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.