Who's betting on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans No: 96% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 66 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $54K traded all time
- Held now
- $10K by 85 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 30% 43 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 96% 42 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $54K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
30% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 66 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 66 points. A week ago, No by 56 points.
Who holds it
85 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 85 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $289 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is XAE12Archangel, with $3.3K on it, $222K lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (75% won).
- Holders
- 43
- Money on it
- $666
- Holders' win rate
- 53%
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $9.8K
- Holders' win rate
- 68%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$666 on it
- 1bigdickprick44% won of 32$289−$41K lifetime
- 2NeonVector86% won of 14$66−$2.0K lifetime
- 3delphilo81% won of 211 · balanced$45+$8.7K lifetime
- 4stanmktmaker43% won of 21$37−$963 lifetime
- 50x7da9…574132% won of 19$35+$11 lifetime
No$9.8K on it
- 1XAE12Archangel75% won of 1,080 · whale$3.3K+$222K lifetime
- 2ArmageddonRewardsBilly45% won of 4,063 · whale$2.1K+$313K lifetime
- 3ourdemocracy279% won of 550 · whale$1.4K+$6.6K lifetime
- 4t4zuwbigfjnrs70% won of 10$937+$353 lifetime
- 5OrbitSugarFree64% won of 108 · whale$658+$6.6K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
7 more- 5.70%$54K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: No
- 5.80%$49K vol.Yes 13%No 87%Smart money: Yes
- 5.90%$34K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?$21K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- 5.65%$20K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- 5.60%$13K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?$13K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?"?
85 wallets hold a position worth $10K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 85 of them. The largest Yes holder is bigdickprick, with $289 on it, $41K lifetime loss over 32 markets (44% won). The largest No holder is XAE12Archangel, with $3.3K on it, $222K lifetime profit over 1,080 markets (75% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $54K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 96% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 66 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 66 points. A week ago, No by 56 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.