Who's betting on “Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 91% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 30 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $49K traded all time
- Held now
- $4.5K by 101 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 91% 54 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 61% 47 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $49K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
The smart money
91% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
Who holds it
101 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 101 of them. The largest Yes holder is cookedquail, with $101 on it, $25K lifetime profit over 90 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is Adventure142, with $692 on it, $545 lifetime loss over 239 markets (71% won).
Sharp money
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $181 on Yes.
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $588
- Holders' win rate
- 67%
- Snipers
- 2 · $181
- Holders
- 47
- Money on it
- $3.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$588 on it
- 1cookedquail87% won of 90 · sniper$101+$25K lifetime
- 20xff7c…b23367% won of 500 · whale$82+$61K lifetime
- 30x6fa7…907e87% won of 870 · sniper$80+$41K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,272 · noise$71+$254K lifetime
- 5hp21021060% won of 372 · balanced$55+$477 lifetime
No$3.9K on it
- 1Adventure14271% won of 239$692−$545 lifetime
- 2OrbitSugarFree64% won of 108 · whale$522+$6.6K lifetime
- 3variant1.meta65% won of 248 · balanced$393+$5.8K lifetime
- 4HDGB65% won of 498 · whale$390+$75K lifetime
- 5RATHMA471% won of 627$348−$7.6K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
7 more- 6.00%$54K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: No
- 5.70%$54K vol.Yes 22%No 79%Smart money: No
- 5.90%$34K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.45% before 2027?$21K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
- 5.65%$20K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- 5.60%$13K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: Yes
- Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.40% before 2027?$13K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?"?
101 wallets hold a position worth $4.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 101 of them. The largest Yes holder is cookedquail, with $101 on it, $25K lifetime profit over 90 markets (87% won). The largest No holder is Adventure142, with $692 on it, $545 lifetime loss over 239 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.80% before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $49K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on December 31, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
91% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 30 points. A week ago, Yes by 22 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on December 31, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.