Who's betting on “Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?”?
Pop culture · $315K volume · Ends January 3, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $315K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 3, 2027.
78% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
99 wallets hold a position worth $361 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is ACara, with $7 on it, $45K lifetime profit over 360 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $106 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 78%
- Holders
- 76
- Money on it
- $36
- Holders' winrate
- 57%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 83% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 23
- Money on it
- $326
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACarawhale | $7 | +$45K | 65% of 360 |
| plmr | $4 | -$1.1K | 19% of 201 |
| rocky42010whale | $3 | +$14K | 57% of 635 |
| PolyJaguarwhale | $2 | +$5.8K | 93% of 249 |
| garbagecollect1whale | $2 | +$4.8K | 62% of 3,911 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $106 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| HambaDambabalanced | $78 | +$1.4K | 78% of 41 |
| 38791873984189whale | $58 | +$201K | 45% of 72,673 |
| timi007 | $42 | -$801 | 32% of 53 |
| p1erekupgrinder | $15 | +$1.4K | 88% of 270 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Richest person on December 31, 2026?
- Bernard Arnault$371K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Jeff Bezos$349K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Elon Musk$199K vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: No
- Jensen Huang$182K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Larry Page$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Mark Zuckerberg$134K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Warren Buffett$94K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Sergey Brin$90K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Larry Ellison$63K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?"?
99 wallets hold a position worth $361 in all; Polkyo has a track record for 99 of them. The largest Yes holder is ACara, with $7 on it, $45K lifetime profit over 360 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is Elias.Thornwell, with $106 on it, $4.5K lifetime profit over 2,940 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $315K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 3, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 7 points. A week ago, No by 5 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 3, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.