Who's betting on “Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?”?
Pop culture · $199K volume · Ends January 3, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $199K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 3, 2027.
40% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
318 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 317 of them. The largest Yes holder is Flatten9696, with $5.6K on it, $2.3K lifetime loss over 505 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is Wojtek, with $116 on it, $54K lifetime profit over 225 markets (15% won).
- Smart money share
- 40% ▼ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 223
- Money on it
- $23K
- Holders' winrate
- 75%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 70% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $249
- Holders' winrate
- 35%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flatten9696 | $5.6K | -$2.3K | 76% of 505 |
| Fafa13 | $4.9K | -$22K | 86% of 192 |
| 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518whale | $2.0K | +$101K | 73% of 15,566 |
| Yombawhale | $1.7K | +$14K | 76% of 201 |
| xiaohuli12 | $1.1K | -$7.0K | 82% of 51 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wojteknoise | $116 | +$54K | 15% of 225 |
| LornaPredictsnoise | $17 | +$30K | 29% of 10,707 |
| thecaricature | $12 | -$8.0K | 42% of 660 |
| climateprofessor | $10 | -$1.2K | 55% of 207 |
| NFTD | $9 | -$2.1K | 87% of 30 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Richest person on December 31, 2026?
- Bernard Arnault$371K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Jeff Bezos$349K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Steve Ballmer$315K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Jensen Huang$182K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Larry Page$156K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Mark Zuckerberg$134K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money split
- Warren Buffett$94K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
- Sergey Brin$90K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Larry Ellison$63K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?"?
318 wallets hold a position worth $23K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 317 of them. The largest Yes holder is Flatten9696, with $5.6K on it, $2.3K lifetime loss over 505 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is Wojtek, with $116 on it, $54K lifetime profit over 225 markets (15% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 97¢ and No at 3¢, a 97% implied chance of Yes. $199K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 3, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
40% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 29 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 3, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.