Who's betting on “Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?”?
Smart money leans No: 72% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 25 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $64K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 90 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 46% 34 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 72% 56 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
The smart money
46% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 41 points.
Who holds it
90 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is DonPanic, with $166 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 229 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $5.4K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,097 markets (86% won).
- Holders
- 34
- Money on it
- $517
- Holders' win rate
- 70%
- Holders
- 56
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 80%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$517 on it
- 1DonPanic70% won of 229 · whale$166+$14K lifetime
- 2srmiiie87% won of 15$144−$57K lifetime
- 3professorlim72% won of 18$69−$1.4K lifetime
- 4chumpsky67% won of 3$19+$16 lifetime
- 5garbagecollect266% won of 1,896 · whale$18+$30K lifetime
No$13K on it
- 1elmcap286% won of 1,097 · whale$5.4K+$2.1M lifetime
- 2insidero89% won of 431 · whale$1.5K+$18K lifetime
- 30xE41adDdfD269f811c8dc173237eD8C4F213d29bD-178604115318879% won of 125$1.3K−$137 lifetime
- 4jcsberger65% won of 48 · balanced$918+$982 lifetime
- 5wish-81% won of 1,108 · whale$697+$71K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
13 more- ↑$2.0T$157K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- ↓$750B$134K vol.Yes 6%No 94%Smart money: Yes
- ↑$1.5T$127K vol.Yes 14%No 86%Smart money split
- ↓$800B$113K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- ↑$1.75T$91K vol.Yes 5%No 95%Smart money: Yes
- ↓$700B$64K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↓$600B$61K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- ↑$2.5T$59K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- ↑$3.0T$34K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑$4.0T$24K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
- ↑$5.0T$15K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- ↑$1.0T$139K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money: No
- ↑$1.25T$136K vol. · ClosedResolved YesSmart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?"?
90 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 90 of them. The largest Yes holder is DonPanic, with $166 on it, $14K lifetime profit over 229 markets (70% won). The largest No holder is elmcap2, with $5.4K on it, $2.1M lifetime profit over 1,097 markets (86% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $64K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
46% of the money on Yes and 72% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 25 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 25 points. A week ago, No by 41 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.