Who's betting on “Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?”?
Smart money leans Yes: 85% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 55 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $34K traded all time
- Held now
- $5.3K by 82 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 85% 54 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 30% 28 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $34K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 14, 2027.
The smart money
85% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 47 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
Who holds it
82 wallets hold a position worth $5.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is Sagand, with $990 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 62 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is Smart-bettor7, with $948 on it, $2.4K lifetime loss over 212 markets (83% won).
Sharp money
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $990 on Yes.
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $3.3K
- Holders' win rate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 1 · $990
- Holders
- 28
- Money on it
- $1.9K
- Holders' win rate
- 66%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$3.3K on it
- 1Sagand77% won of 62 · sniper$990+$21K lifetime
- 2golfpro202569% won of 159 · balanced$664+$53K lifetime
- 3SnapElectionAvoider48% won of 2,239 · whale$487+$203K lifetime
- 4yaroslav.vdovenko0% won of 1$199−$0 lifetime
- 5buoys46% won of 1,244 · whale$134+$83K lifetime
No$1.9K on it
- 1Smart-bettor783% won of 212$948−$2.4K lifetime
- 2HerrieDavis63% won of 2,687 · whale$190+$325K lifetime
- 3donthackme29% won of 87,062 · noise$184+$829K lifetime
- 4ogogo61% won of 205$119−$745 lifetime
- 5Haradwaith50% won of 54,058$92−$377K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Oscars 2027: Best Picture Winner
19 more- The Odyssey$192K vol.Yes 50%No 50%Smart money: Yes
- You Can See Everything$46K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: No
- Dune: Part Three$40K vol.Yes 10%No 91%Smart money: No
- Digger$35K vol.Yes 4%No 96%Smart money: No
- Wild Horse Nine$32K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money split
- The Drama$32K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Fjord$19K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Project Hail Mary$19K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- The Debut$19K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- The Invite$18K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Josephine$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Behemoth!$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- The Social Reckoning$17K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Tony$16K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Artificial$16K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- The Adventures of Cliff Booth$14K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- I Play Rocky$13K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Obsession$13K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Elsinore$12K vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
Other big pop culture markets
- Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?$67M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.5M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?$2.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22?$2.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.4M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?$1.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
82 wallets hold a position worth $5.3K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 82 of them. The largest Yes holder is Sagand, with $990 on it, $21K lifetime profit over 62 markets (77% won). The largest No holder is Smart-bettor7, with $948 on it, $2.4K lifetime loss over 212 markets (83% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will La Bola Negra win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 14¢ and No at 87¢, an 87% implied chance of No. $34K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on March 14, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
85% of the money on Yes and 30% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 47 points. A week ago, Yes by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on March 14, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.