Who's betting on “Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?”?
Politics · $1.7M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $1.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
54% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
569 wallets hold a position worth $219K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 568 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x4c68…6162, with $1.8K on it, $356 lifetime loss over 35 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is katbot, with $39K on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 187 markets (49% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $169 on Yes.
- Smart money share
- 54%
- Holders
- 266
- Money on it
- $20K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 1 · $169
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 85%
- Holders
- 303
- Money on it
- $199K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x4c68…6162 | $1.8K | -$356 | 57% of 35 |
| Vanquish | $1.6K | -$165 | 82% of 287 |
| yupiiiiiiiii | $1.4K | -$348K | 78% of 1,202 |
| denizzwhale | $1.4K | +$2.3M | 66% of 1,006 |
| Carwhale | $1.3K | +$1.5M | 58% of 1,670 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| katbotwhale | $39K | +$2.6K | 49% of 187 |
| yuhyuhyuhy352352whale | $37K | +$315K | 69% of 286 |
| M2sx92kljs42whale | $27K | +$63K | 78% of 514 |
| eCashwhale | $18K | +$273K | 70% of 652 |
| yen4uwhale | $16K | +$66K | 94% of 1,341 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?"?
569 wallets hold a position worth $219K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 568 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x4c68…6162, with $1.8K on it, $356 lifetime loss over 35 markets (57% won). The largest No holder is katbot, with $39K on it, $2.6K lifetime profit over 187 markets (49% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 9¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $1.7M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
54% of the money on Yes and 85% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 32 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 32 points. A week ago, No by 30 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.