Who's betting on “Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?”?
Politics · $3.5M volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
30% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
1,118 wallets hold a position worth $934K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,115 of them. The largest Yes holder is comon119, with $19K on it, $4.0M lifetime loss over 1,000 markets (96% won). The largest No holder is winforretire, with $226K on it, $1.3K lifetime loss over 25 markets (52% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $1.3K on No.
- Smart money share
- 30%
- Holders
- 468
- Money on it
- $89K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 52%
- Holders
- 650
- Money on it
- $845K
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 2 · $1.3K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| comon119 | $19K | -$4.0M | 96% of 1,000 |
| TheLakeside | $12K | -$374 | 50% of 2 |
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $5.2K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| tsihkodiiveswhale | $5.0K | +$26K | 83% of 476 |
| OnYesYesnoise | $4.5K | +$3.5K | 55% of 31 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| winforretire | $226K | -$1.3K | 52% of 25 |
| bysittingnottrading | $214K | +$2.2K | 92% of 13 |
| NeH | $119K | -$72K | 50% of 159 |
| J3lcExePrd1KE5Mbalanced | $42K | +$16K | 89% of 37 |
| whatuppp | $19K | +$3.5K | 94% of 16 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?"?
1,118 wallets hold a position worth $934K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,115 of them. The largest Yes holder is comon119, with $19K on it, $4.0M lifetime loss over 1,000 markets (96% won). The largest No holder is winforretire, with $226K on it, $1.3K lifetime loss over 25 markets (52% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 10¢ and No at 91¢, a 91% implied chance of No. $3.5M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
30% of the money on Yes and 52% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 22 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 23 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.