Who's betting on “Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?”?
The historically profitable money is split between the sides: neither is clearly ahead.
- Volume
- $49K traded all time
- Held now
- $14K by 175 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 78% 94 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 82% 80 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 87¢ and No at 13¢, an 87% implied chance of Yes. $49K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
The smart money
78% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
175 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 174 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler925, with $2.6K on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is Machaon, with $364 on it, $7.3K lifetime profit over 211 markets (49% won).
- Holders
- 95
- Money on it
- $13K
- Holders' win rate
- 63%
- Holders
- 80
- Money on it
- $1.1K
- Holders' win rate
- 50%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$13K on it
- 1gambler92551% won of 535 · whale$2.6K+$6.7K lifetime
- 2Cylindrical-Credenza-Sill67% won of 60 · balanced$1.7K+$1.6K lifetime
- 3X10X1041% won of 1,551 · noise$1.7K+$38K lifetime
- 4DLM00186% won of 21 · balanced$1.5K+$1.7K lifetime
- 5suntori47% won of 71,761$849−$12M lifetime
No$1.1K on it
- 1Machaon49% won of 211 · whale$364+$7.3K lifetime
- 24202149% won of 1,046 · whale$149+$19K lifetime
- 3GenaTheBondKilIer46% won of 468 · whale$101+$41K lifetime
- 4tradetosurvive145% won of 25,230$57−$217K lifetime
- 5just-bettor44% won of 1,405 · balanced$45+$3.0K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in 2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
2 moreOther big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?"?
175 wallets hold a position worth $14K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 174 of them. The largest Yes holder is gambler925, with $2.6K on it, $6.7K lifetime profit over 535 markets (51% won). The largest No holder is Machaon, with $364 on it, $7.3K lifetime profit over 211 markets (49% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 87¢ and No at 13¢, an 87% implied chance of Yes. $49K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
78% of the money on Yes and 82% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it leaned No, by 6 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.