Who's betting on “Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?”?
Finance · $183K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $183K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
71% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 21 points.
165 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 164 of them. The largest Yes holder is LilTimmyJimmy, with $479 on it, $837 lifetime profit over 71 markets (31% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $2.9K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 761 markets (74% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $50 on Yes; 2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $287 on No.
- Smart money share
- 71%
- Holders
- 111
- Money on it
- $4.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 53%
- Snipers
- 1 · $50
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 54
- Money on it
- $9.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 68%
- Snipers
- 2 · $287
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LilTimmyJimmynoise | $479 | +$837 | 31% of 71 |
| 0x75772c0fad8BB3EeFb12bAe32EeF8a58e7EE8fB9-1771157190403grinder | $410 | +$1.8K | 96% of 49 |
| maladec | $389 | +$0 | - |
| Ondrawhale | $388 | +$21K | 62% of 210 |
| svdv1noise | $326 | +$872 | 17% of 29 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avamaxwhale | $2.9K | +$14K | 74% of 761 |
| DerDonwhale | $2.3K | +$97K | 55% of 1,174 |
| imjustalarpwhale | $1.7K | +$26K | 52% of 206 |
| mavxbalanced | $472 | +$1.2K | 90% of 20 |
| K1ngN0rthwhale | $432 | +$27K | 78% of 214 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T$512K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- $1.75–$2.0T$377K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- $2.25–$2.5T$333K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- $1.5–$1.75T$238K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- $1.25–$1.5T$188K vol.Yes 8%No 92%Smart money: No
- $2.5–$2.75T$143K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- No IPO by December 31, 2027$117K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- $3.0T+$109K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- $2.75–$3.0T$86K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?"?
165 wallets hold a position worth $13K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 164 of them. The largest Yes holder is LilTimmyJimmy, with $479 on it, $837 lifetime profit over 71 markets (31% won). The largest No holder is Avamax, with $2.9K on it, $14K lifetime profit over 761 markets (74% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic's market cap be less than $1.25T at market close on IPO day?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 6¢ and No at 94¢, a 94% implied chance of No. $183K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
71% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 23 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 23 points. A week ago, No by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.