Who's betting on “Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?”?
Finance · $109K volume · Ends January 1, 2028 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $109K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
38% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 56 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
123 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 123 of them. The largest Yes holder is LeopoldAschenbooger, with $507 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Rumpelstiltskin, with $970 on it, $26K lifetime profit over 194 markets (77% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $30 on No.
- Smart money share
- 38%
- Holders
- 81
- Money on it
- $2.0K
- Holders' winrate
- 48%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 93% ▼ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 42
- Money on it
- $2.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 62%
- Snipers
- 2 · $30
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeopoldAschenbooger | $507 | +$0 | - |
| anonymousoctopus | $244 | -$509 | 50% of 2 |
| slimecity3 | $161 | -$10K | 41% of 145 |
| UnreasonableAwareness | $126 | +$0 | - |
| Username2133whale | $120 | +$82K | 54% of 272 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rumpelstiltskinbalanced | $970 | +$26K | 77% of 194 |
| 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495noise | $420 | +$318K | 22% of 11,530 |
| DerDonwhale | $383 | +$97K | 55% of 1,174 |
| setybalanced | $194 | +$598 | 70% of 221 |
| 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438 | $68 | -$3.6K | 57% of 1,685 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T$512K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: Yes
- $1.75–$2.0T$377K vol.Yes 29%No 71%Smart money: Yes
- $2.25–$2.5T$333K vol.Yes 11%No 90%Smart money: Yes
- $1.5–$1.75T$238K vol.Yes 19%No 81%Smart money: Yes
- $1.25–$1.5T$188K vol.Yes 9%No 91%Smart money: No
- <$1.25T$183K vol.Yes 6%No 95%Smart money: No
- $2.5–$2.75T$143K vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: Yes
- No IPO by December 31, 2027$117K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
- $2.75–$3.0T$86K vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money split
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?"?
123 wallets hold a position worth $4.4K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 123 of them. The largest Yes holder is LeopoldAschenbooger, with $507 on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is Rumpelstiltskin, with $970 on it, $26K lifetime profit over 194 markets (77% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 3¢ and No at 97¢, a 97% implied chance of No. $109K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2028.
Which side is the smart money on?
38% of the money on Yes and 93% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 55 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 56 points. A week ago, No by 54 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2028. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.