Who's betting on “US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?”?
Politics · $1.1M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 76¢ and No at 25¢, a 76% implied chance of Yes. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
67% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
326 wallets hold a position worth $179K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 316 of them. The largest Yes holder is Bertapotamous, with $44K on it, $295K lifetime profit over 1,019 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451, with $9.6K on it, $194K lifetime profit over 614 markets (66% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $707 on Yes; 1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $553 on No.
- Smart money share
- 67% ▼ 7 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 176
- Money on it
- $135K
- Holders' winrate
- 71%
- Snipers
- 2 · $707
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 98% ▲ 1 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 150
- Money on it
- $44K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 1 · $553
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bertapotamouswhale | $44K | +$295K | 85% of 1,019 |
| anoin123 | $32K | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| wienerdogwhale | $7.5K | +$26K | 56% of 295 |
| Tenebrus7whale | $7.0K | +$155K | 66% of 1,516 |
| Contestable-Parfaitbalanced | $6.6K | +$1.9K | 60% of 137 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451whale | $9.6K | +$194K | 66% of 614 |
| classifiedwhale | $9.1K | +$1.1M | 58% of 1,412 |
| realbengvirwhale | $4.2K | +$47K | 62% of 37 |
| balthazarwhale | $3.5K | +$1.2M | 53% of 44,054 |
| petehegsethbalanced | $3.1K | +$4.1K | 89% of 55 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?"?
326 wallets hold a position worth $179K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 316 of them. The largest Yes holder is Bertapotamous, with $44K on it, $295K lifetime profit over 1,019 markets (85% won). The largest No holder is 0xFc2F4f50ce2F6045d35558A5E2D8d4b2aC6610c7-1769097007451, with $9.6K on it, $194K lifetime profit over 614 markets (66% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 76¢ and No at 25¢, a 76% implied chance of Yes. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
67% of the money on Yes and 98% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 30 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 15 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.