Who's betting on “Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?”?
Politics · $2.9M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $2.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
63% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
1,379 wallets hold a position worth $280K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,375 of them. The largest Yes holder is AAVVAA, with $2.9K on it, $608 lifetime profit over 201 markets (32% won). The largest No holder is NeH, with $46K on it, $72K lifetime loss over 159 markets (50% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $4.9K on No.
- Smart money share
- 63%
- Holders
- 730
- Money on it
- $29K
- Holders' winrate
- 50%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 42%
- Holders
- 649
- Money on it
- $251K
- Holders' winrate
- 64%
- Snipers
- 2 · $4.9K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAVVAAnoise | $2.9K | +$608 | 32% of 201 |
| helico | $2.4K | +$42 | 100% of 2 |
| StasPanda | $1.6K | -$655K | 55% of 1,048 |
| Giovanni-Giorgio | $1.5K | -$6.2K | 48% of 56 |
| 0xB886580698eDE4b18DE3E446b2D8Da8bCEdd81B3-1767532547794whale | $1.3K | +$35K | 49% of 1,032 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| NeH | $46K | -$72K | 50% of 159 |
| zve3dabalanced | $18K | +$3.2K | 97% of 36 |
| aannggg | $15K | +$0 | - |
| KrackenSrusterwhale | $11K | +$273K | 66% of 904 |
| ppacific | $10K | -$8.3K | 52% of 848 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?"?
1,379 wallets hold a position worth $280K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,375 of them. The largest Yes holder is AAVVAA, with $2.9K on it, $608 lifetime profit over 201 markets (32% won). The largest No holder is NeH, with $46K on it, $72K lifetime loss over 159 markets (50% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 11¢ and No at 90¢, a 90% implied chance of No. $2.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
63% of the money on Yes and 42% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 20 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 20 points. A week ago, Yes by 21 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.