Who's betting on “Trump out as President before 2027?”?
Politics · $13M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $13M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
18% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $3.5M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x312Ee6A5878a5582e8f96700E6268171BF9D8604-1773448361331, with $11K on it, $110K lifetime loss over 4 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is SecondWindCapital, with $393K on it, $146K lifetime loss over 34 markets (82% won).
5 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $94K on No.
- Smart money share
- 18%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $150K
- Holders' winrate
- 45%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 61%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $3.3M
- Holders' winrate
- 81%
- Snipers
- 5 · $94K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x312Ee6A5878a5582e8f96700E6268171BF9D8604-1773448361331 | $11K | -$110K | 0% of 4 |
| jianyang69 | $6.6K | +$4.8K | 100% of 1 |
| OverlookHotel | $6.1K | -$65K | 14% of 200 |
| 0xe3de…5d6d | $5.0K | -$4.0K | 50% of 4 |
| 0x803DAa75BE7FB97f5c5c59328F9a4AbE1e54135d-1770747638760 | $4.6K | -$23K | 67% of 6 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| SecondWindCapital | $393K | -$146K | 82% of 34 |
| elmcap2whale | $343K | +$2.1M | 86% of 1,082 |
| onekey02whale | $256K | +$37K | 96% of 468 |
| dedoge | $182K | +$0 | - |
| ReedUpdatee | $158K | -$41K | 43% of 129 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Trump out as President before 2027?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $3.5M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,997 of them. The largest Yes holder is 0x312Ee6A5878a5582e8f96700E6268171BF9D8604-1773448361331, with $11K on it, $110K lifetime loss over 4 markets (0% won). The largest No holder is SecondWindCapital, with $393K on it, $146K lifetime loss over 34 markets (82% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Trump out as President before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $13M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
18% of the money on Yes and 61% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 43 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 43 points. A week ago, No by 45 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.