Who's betting on “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?”?
Politics · $15M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $15M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
76% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $1.5M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,995 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrase, with $16K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is Trump2028, with $167K on it, $360K lifetime profit over 503 markets (87% won).
3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $24K on No.
- Smart money share
- 76%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $175K
- Holders' winrate
- 63%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 80%
- Holders
- 1,000
- Money on it
- $1.3M
- Holders' winrate
- 70%
- Snipers
- 3 · $24K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| tetrasewhale | $16K | +$965K | 65% of 1,185 |
| 0xce1d…1b9bwhale | $13K | +$41K | 57% of 267 |
| Marks1000noise | $11K | +$35K | 48% of 62 |
| productswhale | $10K | +$28K | 48% of 1,149 |
| Nisekowhale | $9.0K | +$2.2K | 66% of 1,201 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trump2028whale | $167K | +$360K | 87% of 503 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $134K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| alextalleynoise | $74K | +$91K | 51% of 49 |
| Kevindotowhale | $44K | +$582K | 79% of 724 |
| Telepath-One | $38K | -$9.5K | 79% of 1,231 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
Other big politics markets
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$75M vol.Yes 19%No 82%Smart money: No
- Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$55M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$54M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$53M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$51M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
- Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$45M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
Questions
Who is betting on "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?"?
2,000 wallets hold a position worth $1.5M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,995 of them. The largest Yes holder is tetrase, with $16K on it, $965K lifetime profit over 1,185 markets (65% won). The largest No holder is Trump2028, with $167K on it, $360K lifetime profit over 503 markets (87% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 12¢ and No at 89¢, an 89% implied chance of No. $15M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
76% of the money on Yes and 80% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The profitable money is split about evenly between the sides. A day ago it was split. A week ago, No by 6 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.