Who's betting on “Iran Nuke before 2027?”?
Politics · $1.4M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
60% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
792 wallets hold a position worth $429K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 790 of them. The largest Yes holder is D33pCynic, with $5.5K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 40 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is MEPP, with $80K on it, $553K lifetime profit over 1,070 markets (62% won).
- Smart money share
- 60%
- Holders
- 326
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' winrate
- 60%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 95%
- Holders
- 466
- Money on it
- $410K
- Holders' winrate
- 73%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| D33pCynicbalanced | $5.5K | +$68K | 60% of 40 |
| rumpuld | $2.7K | -$36K | 67% of 6 |
| 0x4755a94927AEcf87285E1d2E6744e6f61E447AD2-1750093474171 | $1.4K | -$10K | 100% of 3 |
| RememberAmalekwhale | $1.0K | +$837K | 73% of 1,102 |
| gods-eyebalanced | $984 | +$12K | 59% of 32 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| MEPPwhale | $80K | +$553K | 62% of 1,070 |
| TronOGwhale | $27K | +$55K | 83% of 409 |
| 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04whale | $27K | +$146K | 92% of 1,008 |
| zb8whale | $21K | +$301K | 47% of 1,090 |
| iraa3whale | $17K | +$7.3K | 80% of 287 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran Nuke before 2027?"?
792 wallets hold a position worth $429K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 790 of them. The largest Yes holder is D33pCynic, with $5.5K on it, $68K lifetime profit over 40 markets (60% won). The largest No holder is MEPP, with $80K on it, $553K lifetime profit over 1,070 markets (62% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran Nuke before 2027?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 4¢ and No at 96¢, a 96% implied chance of No. $1.4M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
60% of the money on Yes and 95% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 35 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 35 points. A week ago, No by 35 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.