Who's betting on “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?”?
Politics · $142K volume · Ends November 1, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $142K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
55% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 39 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
224 wallets hold a position worth $49K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 224 of them. The largest Yes holder is BabyGroot, with $49 on it, $56K lifetime profit over 743 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $22K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
- Smart money share
- 55% ▲ 2 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 50
- Money on it
- $343
- Holders' winrate
- 52%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 94%
- Holders
- 174
- Money on it
- $49K
- Holders' winrate
- 80%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| BabyGrootwhale | $49 | +$56K | 68% of 743 |
| anoin123 | $45 | -$4.9M | 60% of 1,429 |
| Peryperynoise | $35 | +$43K | 30% of 413 |
| Ddggg | $35 | -$1.9K | 32% of 200 |
| 0xe605…ac5f | $19 | -$5.4K | 29% of 246 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Spirit of Ukraine>UMAwhale | $22K | +$1.8M | 69% of 1,104 |
| thoodrwhale | $8.6K | +$91K | 96% of 810 |
| Trump2028whale | $7.1K | +$360K | 87% of 503 |
| 0x2c79f60bbeD7C69e85A03FC23A4FB935cd64e0AA-1776615780268balanced | $2.9K | +$1.6K | 94% of 218 |
| ZhouSir1 | $993 | -$401 | 72% of 214 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?"?
224 wallets hold a position worth $49K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 224 of them. The largest Yes holder is BabyGroot, with $49 on it, $56K lifetime profit over 743 markets (68% won). The largest No holder is The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA, with $22K on it, $1.8M lifetime profit over 1,104 markets (69% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 1¢ and No at 99¢, a 99% implied chance of No. $142K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 1, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
55% of the money on Yes and 94% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 39 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 41 points. A week ago, No by 46 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 1, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.