Who's betting on “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?”?
Politics · $3.9M volume · Ends November 4, 2026 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $3.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
12% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 70 points. A week ago, No by 73 points.
1,073 wallets hold a position worth $1.0M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,073 of them. The largest Yes holder is forcestrut1, with $84K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is chungguskhan, with $183K on it, $623K lifetime profit over 581 markets (51% won).
1 sniper (proven, high-edge traders) hold $270 on Yes; 3 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $5.6K on No.
- Smart money share
- 12%
- Holders
- 343
- Money on it
- $229K
- Holders' winrate
- 54%
- Snipers
- 1 · $270
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 83%
- Holders
- 730
- Money on it
- $787K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 3 · $5.6K
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| forcestrut1 | $84K | +$0 | - |
| drop126 | $82K | -$237 | - |
| truefish31 | $23K | +$0 | - |
| ABC123ABC | $6.8K | -$2.6M | 0% of 1 |
| maritime6307noise | $6.7K | +$873 | 40% of 356 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| chungguskhanwhale | $183K | +$623K | 51% of 581 |
| wan123whale | $109K | +$1.2M | 79% of 273 |
| 99problems123 | $44K | -$95K | 53% of 339 |
| jaja5050whale | $33K | +$43K | 81% of 301 |
| Extra-Large-Begonia | $30K | -$405K | 94% of 622 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?"?
1,073 wallets hold a position worth $1.0M in all; Polkyo has a track record for 1,073 of them. The largest Yes holder is forcestrut1, with $84K on it, $0 lifetime profit. The largest No holder is chungguskhan, with $183K on it, $623K lifetime profit over 581 markets (51% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 23¢ and No at 78¢, a 78% implied chance of No. $3.9M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on November 4, 2026.
Which side is the smart money on?
12% of the money on Yes and 83% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 70 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 70 points. A week ago, No by 73 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on November 4, 2026. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.