Who's betting on “Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?”?
Sports · $836K volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Mbappé at 77¢ and Yamal at 24¢, a 77% implied chance of Mbappé. $836K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
29% of the money on Mbappé and 43% of the money on Yamal is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yamal, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yamal, by 25 points. A week ago, Yamal by 55 points.
438 wallets hold a position worth $424K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 417 of them. The largest Mbappé holder is 0x8d3319C51520518aD01f6744486ceeA29f376F5B-1791731521955, with $58K on it, $11 lifetime loss over 2 markets (50% won). The largest Yamal holder is useruserlol, with $14K on it, $14K lifetime loss over 151 markets (91% won).
2 snipers (proven, high-edge traders) hold $94 on Yamal; the insider radar has flagged 3 wallets betting $85K on Mbappé; the insider radar has flagged 3 wallets betting $8.5K on Yamal.
- Smart money share
- 29% ▼ 3 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 112
- Money on it
- $324K
- Holders' winrate
- 66%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 3 · $85K
- Smart money share
- 43% ▼ 14 pts 24 h
- Holders
- 326
- Money on it
- $100K
- Holders' winrate
- 69%
- Snipers
- 2 · $94
- Insider flags
- 3 · $8.5K
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0x8d3319C51520518aD01f6744486ceeA29f376F5B-1791731521955 | $58K | -$11 | 50% of 2 |
| VidenteRibeira | $39K | +$0 | - |
| cookedrice | $24K | +$0 | - |
| WenZhuanBuPei | $21K | +$0 | - |
| 0x86544e4dfde | $16K | -$46 | - |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| useruserlol | $14K | -$14K | 91% of 151 |
| Trader120 | $10K | -$22K | 61% of 2,794 |
| 0xe563…77ef | $6.7K | +$3.5K | 50% of 6 |
| nonkenny90whale | $5.8K | +$74K | 93% of 1,375 |
| de5nutswhale | $5.0K | +$154K | 46% of 307 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
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Questions
Who is betting on "Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?"?
438 wallets hold a position worth $424K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 417 of them. The largest Mbappé holder is 0x8d3319C51520518aD01f6744486ceeA29f376F5B-1791731521955, with $58K on it, $11 lifetime loss over 2 markets (50% won). The largest Yamal holder is useruserlol, with $14K on it, $14K lifetime loss over 151 markets (91% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?"?
Polymarket prices Mbappé at 77¢ and Yamal at 24¢, a 77% implied chance of Mbappé. $836K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
29% of the money on Mbappé and 43% of the money on Yamal is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yamal, by 15 points. A day ago it leaned Yamal, by 25 points. A week ago, Yamal by 55 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Is there insider betting on this market?
3 wallets on Mbappé ($85K) and 3 wallets on Yamal ($8.5K) match the pattern of insider bets: a fresh or dormant wallet putting a lot on long odds. A flag is a pattern, not proof.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.