Who's betting on “Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 24 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $24K traded all time
- Held now
- $3.1K by 74 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 61% 44 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 30 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 42¢ and No at 58¢, a 58% implied chance of No. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
The smart money
61% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 69 points.
Who holds it
74 wallets hold a position worth $3.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is notlosecrypto, with $659 on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 17 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is Vagabund97, with $446 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 396 markets (71% won).
- Holders
- 44
- Money on it
- $1.6K
- Holders' win rate
- 69%
- Holders
- 30
- Money on it
- $1.5K
- Holders' win rate
- 71%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$1.6K on it
- 1notlosecrypto76% won of 17$659+$1.8K lifetime
- 2mewmew164% won of 1,151$225−$16K lifetime
- 3R0ont73% won of 116$218−$2.4K lifetime
- 4xtxpleasecallme40% won of 123,253 · noise$116+$255K lifetime
- 5zeitfi-vault-v260% won of 926 · balanced$47+$868 lifetime
No$1.5K on it
- 1Vagabund9771% won of 396 · balanced$446+$32K lifetime
- 2flexibleagedbeef91% won of 11$387+$2.3K lifetime
- 3HDGB65% won of 495 · whale$187+$74K lifetime
- 40x165d3D11dA8b2d020f77511209E0a6c75fD421eA-177420503135391% won of 43$143−$672 lifetime
- 5LornaPredicts28% won of 15,896 · noise$86+$28K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
1 moreOther big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?"?
74 wallets hold a position worth $3.1K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 74 of them. The largest Yes holder is notlosecrypto, with $659 on it, $1.8K lifetime profit over 17 markets (76% won). The largest No holder is Vagabund97, with $446 on it, $32K lifetime profit over 396 markets (71% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be at least 3.0%?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 42¢ and No at 58¢, a 58% implied chance of No. $24K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on February 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
61% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 24 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 22 points. A week ago, No by 69 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on February 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.