Who's betting on “Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?”?
Smart money leans No: 84% of the money on it is in the hands of wallets in profit overall, 18 points ahead of the other side.
- Volume
- $104K traded all time
- Held now
- $22K by 60 wallets
- Smart share · Yes
- 66% 22 scored holders
- Smart share · No
- 84% 38 scored holders
What the money says
The odds
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $104K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2029.
The smart money
66% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 13 points. A week ago it was split.
Who holds it
60 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is 1nvoker1, with $1.6K on it, $15K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Car, with $14K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won).
- Holders
- 22
- Money on it
- $2.7K
- Holders' win rate
- 58%
- Holders
- 38
- Money on it
- $19K
- Holders' win rate
- 60%
The biggest holders on each side
with their lifetime recordsYes$2.7K on it
- 11nvoker162% won of 1,034 · whale$1.6K+$15K lifetime
- 2SmartBoyBilly58% won of 2,620$481−$9.0K lifetime
- 30x2a5f…6c9266% won of 86$189−$13K lifetime
- 4Leclerc0450% won of 1,216 · balanced$131+$3.7K lifetime
- 50x786b…951956% won of 32$74−$57 lifetime
No$19K on it
- 1Car58% won of 1,784 · whale$14K+$1.5M lifetime
- 2Beyonddream65% won of 553$1.7K−$13K lifetime
- 3lissartter56% won of 2,997$567−$287K lifetime
- 4PaddyAlpha69% won of 402 · whale$438+$56K lifetime
- 5PMTraderAdam85% won of 1,111 · whale$350+$33K lifetime
See what the smart money does next, as it happens.
More markets in OpenAI announces bankruptcy by...?
2 more- December 31, 2027$249K vol.Yes 7%No 94%Smart money: No
- December 31, 2029$93K vol.Yes 20%No 80%Smart money: No
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.2M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 2%No 98%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?"?
60 wallets hold a position worth $22K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 60 of them. The largest Yes holder is 1nvoker1, with $1.6K on it, $15K lifetime profit over 1,034 markets (62% won). The largest No holder is Car, with $14K on it, $1.5M lifetime profit over 1,784 markets (58% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2028?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 13¢ and No at 88¢, an 88% implied chance of No. $104K has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2029.
Which side is the smart money on?
66% of the money on Yes and 84% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans No, by 18 points. A day ago it leaned No, by 13 points. A week ago it was split.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2029. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.