Who's betting on “Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?”?
Finance · $1.1M volume · Ends January 1, 2027 · Updated October 24, 2026
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
79% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
342 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 342 of them. The largest Yes holder is Tokor, with $229 on it, $287K lifetime profit over 2,608 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is FlashTradeOracleTester, with $105 on it, $3.0K lifetime loss over 243 markets (88% won).
- Smart money share
- 79%
- Holders
- 188
- Money on it
- $1.4K
- Holders' winrate
- 61%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
- Smart money share
- 70%
- Holders
- 154
- Money on it
- $2.1K
- Holders' winrate
- 82%
- Snipers
- 0
- Insider flags
- 0
The biggest holders on each side
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokorwhale | $229 | +$287K | 55% of 2,608 |
| Hauchnnoise | $161 | +$230K | 43% of 223 |
| SteveTheFishwhale | $133 | +$25K | 67% of 110 |
| Dimpled-Foalwhale | $130 | +$65K | 85% of 274 |
| tsihkodiiveswhale | $89 | +$26K | 83% of 476 |
| Trader | Position | Lifetime P&L | Won |
|---|---|---|---|
| FlashTradeOracleTester | $105 | -$3.0K | 88% of 243 |
| suosuojiugrinder | $100 | +$114 | 90% of 62 |
| crypto-futur3 | $97 | -$9 | 87% of 38 |
| Elias.Thornwellwhale | $73 | +$4.5K | 69% of 2,940 |
| 888867 | $68 | +$8 | 79% of 14 |
Polkyo scores every wallet in this market and charts how each side's smart money share has moved since it was first tracked.
More markets in Largest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA$1.5M vol.Yes 59%No 42%Smart money: Yes
- Apple$1.3M vol.Yes 39%No 61%Smart money: Yes
- Saudi Aramco$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Tesla$1.1M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Amazon$1.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- SpaceX$1.0M vol.Yes 1%No 100%Smart money: No
- Alphabet$844K vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: Yes
Other big finance markets
- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$9.1M vol.Yes 97%No 3%Smart money: Yes
- Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027?$8.0M vol.Yes 3%No 97%Smart money: No
- Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$5.0M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.3M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: Yes
- Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$4.2M vol.Yes 0%No 100%Smart money: No
- Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$3.6M vol.Yes 1%No 99%Smart money: No
Questions
Who is betting on "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
342 wallets hold a position worth $3.5K in all; Polkyo has a track record for 342 of them. The largest Yes holder is Tokor, with $229 on it, $287K lifetime profit over 2,608 markets (55% won). The largest No holder is FlashTradeOracleTester, with $105 on it, $3.0K lifetime loss over 243 markets (88% won).
What are the Polymarket odds for "Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?"?
Polymarket prices Yes at 0¢ and No at 100¢, a 100% implied chance of No. $1.1M has been traded on it, and it is set to end on January 1, 2027.
Which side is the smart money on?
79% of the money on Yes and 70% of the money on No is held by wallets that are in profit overall. The historically profitable money leans Yes, by 9 points. A day ago it leaned Yes, by 9 points. A week ago, Yes by 11 points.
When does this market end?
It is set to end on January 1, 2027. Polymarket markets can resolve earlier if the answer is known sooner.
Smart money share: the part of a side's money held by wallets in profit overall, each scored by its record as of the day it entered. How Polkyo works. Analytics from public data, not financial advice. Not affiliated with Polymarket.